Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decision

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Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decision

The regular season is winding down, and while nearly half the league is still focused on postseason play (or qualifying for said playoffs), there are more teams than not beginning to shift their focus and look ahead to the offseason. The beginning of every offseason brings with it a slew of roster decisions, ranging from qualifying offers to player opt-outs and club options. This year will see more than 30 decisions on club options come due once the World Series has completed. We dont have a complete picture of how all of these players will finish the season. Their play in the final week, plus any postseason heroics and of course the potential for a significant injury could all impact the teams final decisions. But with about 94% of the regular season in the books, most teams know which way theyre leaning with regard to these decisions. Lets take a look at each one from a high level , C, Dodgers: $3.5MM club option The Dodgers love Barnes framing skills. They probably dont love that hes 13-for-122 in throwing out base thieves over the past two seasons (10.6%). Barnes isnt a good hitter, but hes bounced back from last years abysmal .180/.256/.242 output to his .261/.327/.306 in 149 plate appearances this year. The Dodgers have a trio of younger options behind , including , and top prospect (though Rushing has been working in left field lately). Perhaps its finally time to move on, but the cost is cheap enough that they could consider the option. , LHP, Braves: $7.25MM club option ($1.25MM buyout) A pair of three-run outings over the past five weeks have inflated Bummers ERA from 3.16 to 3.71, but hes still generally been a quality reliever after coming over from the White Sox in the offseason. Drilling beneath that earned run average, Bummer sports clearly plus rate stats: 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 60.4% grounder rate. That ground-ball rate ranks eighth in baseball among the 352 pitchers whove to sed at least 50 innings in 2024. That alone would make Bummers option likely to be picked up, but the fact that the Braves hold a 2026 option valued at $7.5MM only sweetens the pot. This feels likely to be exercised. , LHP, Rangers: $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout) Chafin was very good in Detroit prior to being traded and has struggled with the Rangers since the swap. Hes pitched 14 2/3 innings for Texas and logged a 4.30 ERA with more troubling underlying stats, including a 16.9% walk rate and 1.84 HR/9. Chafin has a strong track record and will get another big league deal this winter, but thatll probably come after having this option bought out. , RHP, Orioles: $8MM club option ($500K buyout) Dominguez has had a bizarre Orioles tenure. Hes stepped into the ninth inning, saved nine games, punched out a huge 32.9% of his opponents and recorded a tidy 3.26 ERA. Hes also been clobbered for a staggering six home runs in just 19 1/3 innings. A ridiculous 37.5% of the hits hes allowed with Baltimore have been home runs. Dominguez is averaging better than 98 mph on his heater and sporting elite strikeout/walk rates. If the Os believe his home run troubles to be a small-sample fluke, this net $7.5MM is a reasonable price to pay for a flamethrowing late-inning reliever even if hes working as a setup man to a returning next year. , RHP, Cardinals: $12MM club option ($1MM buyout) Gibson has been precisely the stabilizing innings eater the Cardinals hoped to be getting when they signed him. Hes to sed 159 2/3 innings of 4.11 ERA ball, striking out 21.3% of opponents (his best since 2019). His 9.2% walk rate is higher than usual for the 66 righty, but Gibson is limiting homers (1.13 HR/9), keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average clip (45.2%) and averaging better than 5 2/3 innings per start. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently noted how quickly the Mi souri native has become a vital leader in the clubhouse as well. For a net $11MM, Gibson feels like a lock to be back in St. Louis. , LHP, Pirates: $15MM club option Gonzales began the season with three nice starts for the Pirates before enduring a three-month absence due to a flexor injury. He pitched well in his mid-July return, then struggled through three starts before landing back on the shelf and eventually undergoing flexor surgery thatll keep him out for a significant portion of next season. This would be a no-brainer to decline even if there were a buyout of some magnitude, but there isnt one, so its a foregone conclusion that this will be declined. , RHP, Braves: $7MM club option ($2MM buyout) The 33-year-old Jackson has trimmed his ERA a bit since being traded from San Francisco back to Atlanta, but hes still sitting on a 5.12 mark this season (4.50 with the Braves). Hes walked 11.1% of his opponents in 2024, including a grim 13.5% mark in 16 frames with Atlanta. The Braves already have a deep and pricey bullpen. , , and the aforementioned Bummer (a suming his option is indeed exercised) will earn a combined $39.25MM next year. Even if the Braves want to bring Jackson back, they could probably buy this option out and look to do so at a lower rate. , OF/DH, Orioles: $16.5MM club option ($3MM buyout) After a hot start following his trade to the Orioles, Jimenez has been a disappointment in Baltimore. Heralded as one of the games top prospects and signed to a then-record contract for a player with no MLB experience, he homered 31 times as a rookie but has since battled injuries as his offensive output has dwindled. Jimenez still makes boatloads of hard contact, but most of it comes on the ground; his 56 Evgeny Kuznetsov Jersey .3% grounder rate is one of the highest in baseball, and it negates his immense raw power. Itd be a shock if the Orioles picked this up for a net $13.5MM. , RHP, D-backs: $7MM club option ($1MM buyout) Shoulder problems have limited Kelly to 11 starts this season, and hes posted a 4.00 ERA with uncharacteristic homer i sues in 63 innings (1.57 HR/9). Hes also sporting a 19.1% strikeout rate thats down more than six percentage points from 2023. Even still, this is a flat bargain price for a pitcher whos given the Snakes 813 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball since signing after a terrific four-year run in the KBO. Barring a scenario where his shoulder is in worse shape than anyone realizes, this option is one of the easier calls to exercise among this years slate. , 2B/OF, Rays: $10.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) Its been a fairly typical season for Lowe. Hes had strong production at the plate when healthy but thats again been a notable caveat. The 30-year-old slugger is hitting .244/.319/.476 with 18 round-trippers in only 379 plate appearances. An oblique strain cost him about six weeks early in the season. Lowe has never had a below-average season at the plate. This years 126 wRC+ is an exact match for his career mark. His salary might be getting steep for the Rays frugal owner, but a $10.5MM salary in 2025 and an $11.5MM club option for the 2026 season give him trade value for Tampa Bay. , RHP, Cardinals: $12MM club option ($1MM buyout) Because of a knee injury that shelved him on July 31 and kept him out of action into September, Lynn hasnt pitched as many innings as his rotationmate on this list, Gibson. Hes been effective when on the bump, posting a 3.96 ERA in 111 1/3 innings with respectable strikeout and walk rates of 21.3% and 8.6%. Lynn has been unable to complete five innings in nearly one-third of his starts this season, though, and hes heading into his age-38 season (as opposed to Gibsons age-37). With , , and presumably Gibson all in next years rotation, plus younger arms like , and all in the mix, Lynn could be bought out in order to reallocate those dollars to other areas of need. , OF, Twins: $12MM club option ($2MM buyout) The Twins acquired Margot in a trade that saw the Dodgers cover the majority of his salary. Minnesota is only on the hook for $4MM of what hes owed in 2024. The Rays, who initially traded him to the Dodgers, agreed to cover the $2MM buyout on Margots option as part of the trade. The Twins arent bringing Margot back at $12MM. Hes hit lefties quite well but has floundered against righties and is no longer the premium defender he once was. This is a lock to be declined. , RHP, Mets: $7.75MM club option ($250K buyout) The Rays signed Maton to a one-year, $6.5MM deal in mid-February. He struggled throughout his time with Tampa Bay, with uncharacteristically poor strikeout and walk rates (19.7% and 11.9%, respectively). The Rays traded Maton to the Mets in an early July swap that netted them a PTBNL. It was a salary-driven swap and its worked out wonderfully for the Mets. Maton has not only returned to form but enjoyed one of the best stretches of his career. In 22 2/3 innings, he touts a 2.38 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. The net $7.5MM decision could still prove steep, particularly for a team that typically lives in the top luxury tax bracket and would thus effectively be paying a 110% tax on next years $7.75MM salary. The Mets can afford it if they feel this version of Maton will sustain his output over a full season, but its a borderline call. , RHP, Tigers: $4.45MM club option ($250K buyout) Millers one-year, $3.25MM deal with Detroit included a $4.25MM club option, but hes boosted that option value by $200K thanks to escalators in his contract tied to his number of games pitched. With a 4.53 ERA, below-average strikeout rate and a notable susceptibility to home runs, Miller is far from a lock to see the option picked up. Hes doing his best to make the Tigers think about it, however, with a 1.15 ERA and 16-to-4 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings acro s his past 14 appearances. , 3B, White Sox: $25MM club option ($5MM buyout) Moncada mi sed more than five months with an adductor injury and now has a .236/.292/.387 slash acro s his past 207 big league games. The White Sox will buy him out. , 1B/OF, Orioles $8MM club option OHearns big first half, which was fueled by an , has given way to a pedestrian second half. Like many Os hitters, hes limping to the finish line. After hitting .274/.352/.452 through his first 364 plate appearances, OHearn has tanked with a .189/.240/.267 slash in his past 96 trips to the plate. Thats dropped his season line to a good-not-great .255/.328/.411 (111 wRC+). Baltimore has only given the lefty-swinging OHearn 39 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year, and that $8MM salary is starting to feel like more than theyll want to commit to a defensively limited platoon bat, particularly considering their crowded roster of position players. , DH, Braves: $16MM club option ($1MM buyout) The 34-year-old Ozuna is in the midst of his worst month of the season, but even that means hes merely been about league-average at the plate in September. He sports a mountainous .303/.380/.550 slash and 37 dingers on the season. Its the best performance of his career outside the 60-game 2020 season (.338/.431/.636). Atlanta will pick this option up, even with locked into the roster for two more seasons following his deadline acquisition. , RHP, Brewers: $8MM club option ($1.5MM buyout) Among the easiest calls in this slate of club options, Peralta currently has a 3.75 ERA in 30 starts and 163 1/3 innings of work. Hes set down nearly 27% of his opponents on strikes and i sued walks at a 9.2% clip. If his steady mid-rotation work over the years wasnt incentive enough to pick up this option and, for the record, it very much is the contract contains a second club option for the 2026 season, which is also valued at $8MM. , 2B, Mariners: $12MM club option ($750K buyout) Like so many of the Mariners recent acquisitions, things just havent clicked in Seattle for Polanco. The switch-hitter was steadily (and quietly) a big contributor in Minnesota from 2018-23, hitting .270/.338/.445 including a 33-homer showing in his peak 2021 campaign. With the Mariners, hes slashed just .203/.296/.342 on the season. To Polancos credit, he picked things up around the seasons midpoint and posted solid numbers in July and August, but hes in a dreadful September swoon and appears destined to have this option bought out. , 1B, Yankees: $17MM club option ($6MM buyout) Rizzo mi sed 63 games with the 2023 Yankees and turned in a roughly league-average performance at the plate. Hes going to end up mi sing about 70 games this season, thanks to a broken forearm. At the moment, he owns a .215/.283/.325 batting line on the season his worst output since his rookie season with the 2011 Padres. The 35-year-olds option is likely to be declined. , SS, Dodgers: $5MM club option ($1MM buyout) A .297/.342/.421 batting line (115 wRC+) through 315 plate appearances, coupled with borderline elite defense at shortstop, for a net $4MM. Not much more needs to be said. This one is an easy call to exercise. , C, White Sox: $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout) Acquired in a salary-dump trade with the Braves over the winter, Sta si opened the season on the injured list with hip inflammation and eventually required surgery. He didnt get into a game this year. This will be bought out. , 3B, D-backs: $15MM club option ($2MM buyout) Earlier in the season, Suarezs struggles at the plate led the D-backs in favor of rookie . Things can change in a hurry. Since July 1, Suarez boasts a gargantuan .321/.369/.663 batting line (177 wRC+). Hes ripped 22 homers and 18 doubles in 274 plate appearances during that stretch. Suarez is now two big flies shy of his fifth 30-homer season. Theres no reason to think the D-backs will want to move on, but even if they did, they could pick up this $15MM option and find trade interest. Theres very little chance this one is bought out. , LHP, Reds: $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout) Suter came to his hometown Reds as advertised: middling strikeout rate, strong command, gobs of weak contact. Hes piled up 63 2/3 innings of relief work and notched a terrific 3.19 ERA. At a net $3.25MM, theres no reason to decline this option. , RHP, Yankees: $2.5MM club option There was plenty of understandable eye-rolling from Yankees fans when Weaver, who posted an ERA north of 6.00 in 2020, 2022 and 2023 signed a major league deal over the winter. Its proven to be one of the best buys of the offseason for any team, however. The former top prospect has been a revelation in s bullpen, to sing 78 2/3 innings of 3.09 ERA ball with a career-best 29.2% strikeout rate against an 8% walk rate. Weaver is throwing harder than ever and has leaned heavily on what was once a seldom-used cutter. This one is a slam dunk; theres no way the Yankees would cut Weaver loose when he could be retained so affordably. , RHP, Brewers: $10.5MM club option ($250K buyout) Williams mi sed the first three-plus months of the season due to fractures in his lower back but has been excellent when healthy. In 17 1/3 frames, hes put up a sparkling 1.53 ERA with a comical 43.8% strikeout rate against a 12.8% walk rate. The 29-year-old differs from the others on this list in that his club option season covers his final arbitration year. He agreed to the option year at a fixed price in order to avoid going to an arbitration hearing this past offseason. Its at least po sible that the Brewers could buy out the option and try to negotiate a slightly lower price. The $10.5MM price on his option only represents a 40% raise over this years salary, however. Even if the Brewers feel theres a po sibility for some marginal savings, theyd be so slight that it might not be worth the ha sle and the potential for frustrating a key player like Williams. Trevor Carrick Jersey
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